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Divergence Persists Between CNYJPY and Chinese Equities

CHINA
  • The divergence persists between the CNYJPY exchange rate and Chinese equities as the deceleration in the domestic economy, the contraction in liquidity and the government's crackdown on a range of industries have been weighing on risky assets.
  • CNYJPY has historically shown strong co-movement with equities (i.e. Hang Seng index, see chart).
  • In addition, periods of Yen weakness have generally been associated with trending stock market (also known as 'risk on' environment).
  • The JPY has been the weakest performing currency against the CNY among the G10 world, down 12.3% since the start of the year.
  • CNY has remained strong this year as the significant divergence between DM central banks and PBoC (PBoC assets are almost unchanged since the pandemic) has been supporting the yuan.
  • With growth expectations expected to be revised to the downside amid rising Covid uncertainty, Chinese equities could reach new lows in the near term.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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