Free Trial

Divergence today

STIR
  • Short sterling futures are under pressure today as the market reassesses whether moves have gone too far following last week's BOE meeting. We note too, that the inversion that had been priced out of the short sterling curve has now come back. The Sep23-Sep25 part of the strip is inverted by 18.5 ticks at the time of writing, around 4 ticks more inverted than yesterday. Markets continue to more than fully price a hike by February (Dec hike still largely priced) with rates above 1% by end-2022 and then peak around 1.25% mid-2023. Broadbent is due to speak on labour shortages in the agricultural sector at 15:30GMT/10:30ET - his comments will be watched for any wider context, particularly as he is one of the likely swing voters on the MPC.
  • The Eurodollar strip, by contrast, has been moving higher following on from a Bloomberg news story yesterday that Brainard had been interviewed to be the FOMC Governor.
  • Euribor futures in contrast are little moved on the day.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.