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DMAs In Play Ahead Of BI Decision

DOLLAR-IDR

Spot USD/IDR has eased off, catching up with continued USD weakness, after failing to break above its 100-DMA yesterday (which also capped gains on Jul 20). The 50-DMA has seemingly bottomed out recently, and is now climbing towards the 200-DMA, leaving bulls on the lookout for a "golden cross" formation.

  • The imminent monetary policy decision from Bank Indonesia is the main event on the local economic docket this week. 20 out of 25 economists surveyed by BBG expect policymakers to stand pat, with the 5 dissenters calling for a 25bp cut to the benchmark interest rate.
  • A 6.9 magnitude earthquake hit Indonesian shores today and the national meteorological agency warned against further aftershocks. The agency said there was no risk of a tsunami.
  • USD/IDR last trades at IDR14,787, 58 pips worse off. A fall through Jul 28-30 lows, coinciding at IDR14,455, would support bearish case. Conversely, a rally above the 100-DMA at IDR14,902 would reaffirm that the broader uptrend is intact, bringing the IDR15,000 mark into play.
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