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DMP data due at 9:30BST

UK DATA
  • The BOE's Decision Maker Panel data for August will be released at 9:30BST.
  • The key components worth watching in here are the inflation expectation components and wage expectations.
  • Governor Bailey referred to the DMP showing a potential top in wage growth in the DMP in his testimony ahead of the TSC yesterday. The expected wage growth over the next year in the July dataset fell to 5.0% from 5.3% in June. This was the lowest since May 2022 and peaked at 6.3% in December 2022. The realised wage growth over the past year fell back from 7.1% in June to 6.7% in July - but the 3-month average ticked up marginally from 6.820% to 6.846%. Other metrics of labour market tightness will also be watched.
  • Firms' mean expected own price growth for the next year rose from 4.9% in June to 5.6% in July but the 3-month average still fell to its lowest level for 16 months. The MPC will be keen to see whether last month's single month rise was a blip or whether this will pick up again.
  • The other main metric we will be looking at will be 3-year ahead CPI expectations. This fell to 3.3% in July from 3.7% in June (to its lowest level since the series began in May last year).
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