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DNB Revise 2024 Brent Forecast Lower and with Downside Risk


DNB Bank has cut the 2024 Brent crude forecast from $90/bbl to $82/bbl amid softer than expected fundamentals and warns of further downside risk.

  • Prices are expected to strengthen in H2 2024 from current levels as OPEC pushes the market back into deficit.
  • There is “an increased probability of OPEC moving to a market share strategy in 2024.” Saudi Arabia has probably reached a “red line” with output cut to 9mb/d.
  • “If supply continues to surprise to the upside, we believe OPEC might shift its output strategy from price focus to volume focus. This would create turmoil in the market and send oil prices sharply lower.”
  • Actual disruption to oil production is unlikely despite the sharp escalation of geopolitical risk amid Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.

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