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Does the vote split matter to the market? Only if its 5-3

BOE
  • From a market perspective whether there is a 7-1 vote or a 6-2 vote probably makes little difference. Neither Saunders nor Ramsden seem in a rush to take the next step and vote for a rate hike. And without wider support in August, it is unlikely any other member would change their view and join them voting for a curtailment of QE in September and by November there will only be a few weeks left for the programme to run, so there would be little incentive to end the programme early that close to its end and the economic impact of doing so or not would only be marginal.
  • Having said all of that, if the vote was 5-3, there would be another member of the MPC who had unexpectedly moved into the hawkish camp and we would expect there to be a market reaction. Indeed, in the last 3 weeks we have heard from every member of the MPC apart from Tenreyro (who is considered one of the most dovish members) and Governor Bailey (whose Mansion House speech on 1 July gave little away). If either of these members voted to curtain QE early, it would be a key market event.
  • We will release the full MNI BOE Preview later today.
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