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Dollar Index Snaps Losing Streak, NZD Sharply lower

FOREX
  • A mixture of solid bank earnings and potential profit taking ahead of the weekend worked in favour of the USD on Friday. The DXY has risen around 0.6%, snapping a three-day losing streak in the process. The greenback rally picked up momentum following the bumper University of Michigan sentiment release: 1y inflation expectations came in well ahead of forecast (4.6% vs. Exp. 3.7%, the biggest beat on consensus since 2021) and the associated moves in US yields (2-yr +13bps).
  • Weakness for equities left antipodean currencies at the bottom of the G10 pile, with a notable 1.5% drop for NZD. However, it is worth noting that the moves are just an unwind of the prior day’s significant rally. GBPUSD sits close behind, declining 0.95% and hovers just above the 1.2400 handle approaching the weekend close.
  • This is potentially an important turnaround for cable given the bullish significance of the recent breach of 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad 3.5 month range. The weekly close back below this point could test the resolve for bulls, especially ahead of next week’s UK CPI data.
  • In similar vein, EURUSD has been unable to consolidate above the 1.10 handle and the recent trend highs of 1.1033, sliding 0.55% on Friday and halving the week’s advance.
  • Overall, the USD Index remains over 1% below the Monday high, but has steadily been paring these losses throughout the session. 101.80 marks the 50% retracement of the week's range, of which a breach may prove constructive for a further recovery towards the 50-dma which intersects at 103.45.
  • Monday’s docket sees US Empire State Manufacturing as well as potential comments from ECB’s Lagarde. China GDP data, along with other activity metrics, all cross early on Tuesday.
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