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Dollar Nearing YTD Highs as Bond Rout Persists

FOREX
  • The bond rout is persisting early Monday, with last week's hot CPI fueling a further pricing-in of aggressive easing from G10 central banks this morning. A handful of sell-side institutions have revised their calls for this week's meeting, seeing a 75bps rate rise to ward off accelerating price pressures.
  • Resultingly, Treasury yields are surging across the curve, putting the 2yr yield at 3.2%, the highest level since 2007. The greenback is following rates north, putting the USD Index on track to test May's best levels at 105.00 - which marked the strongest USD in twenty years.
  • The higher, flatter US yield curve has sapped equity market sentiment, putting US futures deeper into bear market territory as prices continue to chew through the post-pandemic stock rally. This has helped support haven currencies ahead of the NY crossover, with JPY and CHF among the better performing currencies.
  • At the bottom-end of the table, NOK and AUD have been dented by the shakier sentiment, while GBP extends recent weakness on the back of a poorer-than-expected monthly GDP release, with April GDP contracting by 0.3% in what's expected to be a rocky few quarters for the economy.
  • The Monday speaker and data docket is typically empty, with no major data releases. Fed's Brainard makes an appearance later in the day, but the event is not policy-oriented, with the FOMC remaining inside the pre-meeting media blackout period.
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