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OIL: $80/b Oil Unlikely to Break OPEC Cohesion: Energy Intelligence

OIL
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With Brent trading back around $80/b and Trump calling for OPEC to bring down prices, this in theory gives OPEC the window it needs to boost production, according to Energy Intelligence’s Amena Bakr.

  • Member states have been making the case for months that the fundamentals have been tighter than the market had appreciated.
  • OPEC has made a total of 3.86m b/d of cuts, so the question is whether the group accelerates its unwinding or whether individual compliance erodes.
  • Sources have told Bakr that the answer to both questions is no, with the need to maintain unity prevailing: cohesion keeps the groups influence over the markets and maintains balance.
  • There is also an unwritten rule that OPEC should not benefit from sanctions levied at members, so threats by Trump could strain relations.
  • Regarding threats of sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, it remains too early to tell what the impact will be for the market, but OPEC+’s response will likely seek to maintain cohesion in the bloc.
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With Brent trading back around $80/b and Trump calling for OPEC to bring down prices, this in theory gives OPEC the window it needs to boost production, according to Energy Intelligence’s Amena Bakr.

  • Member states have been making the case for months that the fundamentals have been tighter than the market had appreciated.
  • OPEC has made a total of 3.86m b/d of cuts, so the question is whether the group accelerates its unwinding or whether individual compliance erodes.
  • Sources have told Bakr that the answer to both questions is no, with the need to maintain unity prevailing: cohesion keeps the groups influence over the markets and maintains balance.
  • There is also an unwritten rule that OPEC should not benefit from sanctions levied at members, so threats by Trump could strain relations.
  • Regarding threats of sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, it remains too early to tell what the impact will be for the market, but OPEC+’s response will likely seek to maintain cohesion in the bloc.