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Domestic Data Signals Amplify Pressure To ACGBs, Futures Print New Session Lows


The release of Australian jobs statistics applied a modicum of further pressure to ACGBs amid evidence of continued tightness in the labour market. Employment grew more than expected, solely on the back of gains in full-time positions. The unemployment rate stayed at the 48-year low of 3.9% (vs. 3.8% expected), due to a larger than anticipated uptick in participation. The ABS commented that "average employment growth over the past three months (30,000) continues to be stronger than the pre-pandemic trend."

  • Separately, a Melbourne Institute survey showed that consumer inflation expectations for 1-year ahead rose to +6.7% Y/Y in June from +5.0% recorded in May.
  • The data inspired a light boost to hawkish RBA bets, albeit the implied change in cash rate target come the end of the next Board meeting remains comfortably below pre-Fed highs.
  • YM trades +9.3 & XM +6.5, both lodging fresh session highs, after losing some altitude earlier. Bills run 4-8 ticks higher through the reds. Cash curve still runs steeper, but yields are way off initial lows, last 2.8-7.2bp lower.

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