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Dot Plot: Analyst Expected 2022 Median Points To 250bp Of Further Hikes

FED

It’s even harder now to get a read on expectations for the new median Funds rate Dot Plot than it was prior to the 75bp hike revelations.

  • Multiple sell-side analysts changed their views late Monday/Tuesday to reflect a 75bp raise expectation – but only a handful have updated their Dot Plot views (all higher).
  • Below is roughly where we saw consensus on the median dots before Monday, as well as some sell-side updated medians. The latter are roughly in line with market pricing for 2022-23.
  • Looks like 3.4-3.5 is expected for 2022 (implying about 250bp in further hikes this year, including the June decision), with somewhere in the high 3s-low 4s in 2023, and cuts in 2024.
Expected Median Fed Funds "Dot"202220232024
March SEP1.92.82.8
Goldman Sachs3.43.93.6
Wells Fargo3.44.13.1
Deutsche3.53.83.8
Consensus before Monday2.9 / 3.13.43.1
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