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Dot Plot Expectations Finely Split, Though Cuts Seen In 2024-25


Sell-side analysts are finely split on their expectations for the September FOMC meeting's update to the "Dot Plot".

  • The number expecting a 3.9% vs 4.1% 2022 Fed funds median dot is almost evenly split (vs the 3.4% median in the June projections); likewise, there is a nearly even divide between 4.1% and 4.4% for end-2023 (vs 3.8% seen in the June forecasts).
  • Almost all see the FOMC penciling in rate cuts in 2024 (expected 3.8% median vs 3.4% in June).
  • The 2025 projections are newly introduced in this round.

Source: MNI

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