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Dot Plot: Higher Medians, More Hawkish Distribution

FED

Some significant changes to the June Dot Plot vs March's, as suggested by the big rises in the year-end medians - see table:

  • The top "dot" for 2023 is now above 6%, at 6.125% (100bp of hikes for the rest of the year). The top dot was 5.875% prior.
  • Only 2 dots at current levels (5.125%), with Powell and the center of the Committee likely at 5.50-5.75% (9 dots) and the hawks and doves on either side (6 below, 3 above).
  • A definite shift up in 2024 dots, whereas 9 were at 4.1% or below last time, now just 2 are there - in line with increases to the 2023 distribution. 100bp of cuts are now implied in 2024, vs 87.5bp prior.

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