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FED: Dot Plot: Medians Unchanged But More Hawkish Skew

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{US} While the Dot Plot medians for rates remained unchanged, the distribution of dots has shifted in a more cautious direction versus December. 4 (of 19 members) now see rates on hold this year (was 1 in Dec), with 8 total seeing 1 or no cuts this year. The lowest 2 dots are both at 3.6% in 2025, with (probably Goolsbee) moving up from 3.1%. Overall a much higher bar seen to cutting 3 times this year (just 2 participants see that outcome).

  • This has a knock-on effect to 2026 dots as well, with the top 3 dots now a quarter point higher at 4.1%, and again the lowest dot up 50bp (to 2.9% from 2.4%). For 2027 it's relatively unchanged.
  • The longer-run dot remaining unchanged at 3.00% is a modest surprise, with opinions having been split between no change and a rise to 3.1%.
  • The bottom dot has moved up from 2.4% to 2.5%, and but overall there's still 8 dots below 3.00% as per last time. The strange thing is though, one of the dots appears to have moved down, from 2.75% to 2.6%. There's still 3 dots exactly at 3.00% and none of the 8 dots above 3.00% changed from December.
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{US} While the Dot Plot medians for rates remained unchanged, the distribution of dots has shifted in a more cautious direction versus December. 4 (of 19 members) now see rates on hold this year (was 1 in Dec), with 8 total seeing 1 or no cuts this year. The lowest 2 dots are both at 3.6% in 2025, with (probably Goolsbee) moving up from 3.1%. Overall a much higher bar seen to cutting 3 times this year (just 2 participants see that outcome).

  • This has a knock-on effect to 2026 dots as well, with the top 3 dots now a quarter point higher at 4.1%, and again the lowest dot up 50bp (to 2.9% from 2.4%). For 2027 it's relatively unchanged.
  • The longer-run dot remaining unchanged at 3.00% is a modest surprise, with opinions having been split between no change and a rise to 3.1%.
  • The bottom dot has moved up from 2.4% to 2.5%, and but overall there's still 8 dots below 3.00% as per last time. The strange thing is though, one of the dots appears to have moved down, from 2.75% to 2.6%. There's still 3 dots exactly at 3.00% and none of the 8 dots above 3.00% changed from December.
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