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Double Surprise from CBR Highlights a Drive to Anchor Expectations, Nabiullina Presser Eyed

RUSSIA
  • Interestingly, it seems the CBR have placed a greater value than markets were anticipating on high expectations and the recovery in demand (global and domestic) for the decision to accelerate the policy tightening trajectory at this meeting
  • CBR acknowledged market conditions are little changed since the prior meeting and that CPI has started to decline from the peak at 5.8%, but remain elevated to a slightly higher average inflation rate
  • However, it would seem that by going with above consensus hikes for two consecutive meetings and introducing forward guidance that the CBR is trying to decisively anchor expectations as much as possible
  • The degree to which Nabiullina focuses on these factors in the presser will be interesting to gauge as they'll undoubtedly become the core focus for the June meeting as markets monitor the course of the recovery and vaccine rollout process.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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