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Dovish Harker Helps Keep Treasuries Close To Post CPI Highs

  • Speaking shortly after softer-than-expected core CPI inflation, Harker (’23 voter) favours a possible pause in rate hikes when the Funds rate hits around 4.5%, noting that policy lags may not be as long as previously thought and that he’s hearing more signs of a slowing economy from local contacts.
  • From earlier prepared remarks: “In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance”… “But I want to be clear: A rate hike of 50 basis points would still be significant.”
  • Treasuries hover close to post CPI highs, whilst in yields space are down -22.5bps for 2Y, -24.5bp for 5Y and -20.5bp for 10Y, with 30Y lagging at -15.5bp ahead of upcoming auction.

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