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Dovish Minutes? Or Less Hawkish?

US TSYS SUMMARY
Moderately volatile post-July FOMC minutes release, rates and equities both surged off lows, retraced and repeated the see-saw pattern into the close as markets continued to digest the minutes. Differing opinions regarding tapering.
  • Minutes squarely stated: "Most participants judged that the Committee's standard of "substantial further progress" toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met."
  • Perhaps the the most dovish passage below suggests participants are more worried about Unemp and Inflation. Also helpful for market is reduced uncertainty over Tsy vs MBS pace:
    • Several participants also remained concerned about the medium-term outlook for inflation and the possibility of the reemergence of significant downward pressure on inflation, especially in light of the recent decline in longer-term inflation compensation. In addition, several participants emphasized that there was considerable uncertainty about the likely resolution of the labor market shortages and supply bottlenecks and about the influence of pandemic-related developments on longer-run labor market and inflation dynamics.
  • Tsys bounced after $27B 20Y Bond auction (912810TA6) stopped through: drawing a high yield of 1.850% (1.890% last month) vs. 1.855% WI. Bid-to-cover 2.44 vs. 2.33 in July.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.2155%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 0.7733%, 10-Yr is up 0.8bps at 1.27%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 1.9127%.
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