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Down For the 4th Straight Week, OPEC Meeting On Nov 25-26 Coming Into Focus

OIL

Brent crude sits a touch above Thursday NY closing levels, last near $77.50/bbl. We have largely tracked sideways in Friday trade to date, (narrow $77.28-$77.75/bbl range). This leaves us comfortably lower for the week, down ~4.8% at this stage. This is fourth straight weekly loss for Brent. WTI was last near $73/bbl, following a similar trajectory to Brent today.

  • Goldman Sachs analysts noted earlier that the driver of the crude slump has been stronger non-OPEC supply (see this BBG link for more details). This was from the US but also economies like Iran.
  • Elsewhere, per BBG the US government stated that all Venezuela sanctions are on the table if path to fairer elections by the end of November does not become clearer . This would include revoking oil and gas export licenses (see this BBG link for more details).
  • Looking ahead, next weekend's OPEC meeting (starting on Nov 25) will be a focus point.
  • In terms of levels, Thursday's low in Brent was $76.60/bbl, a break sub this level opens up $75.51 (76.4% retracement of May 4 – Sep 28 bull run).
  • For WTI, next up lies $69.96 (76.4% retrace of the May 4 – Sep 28 bull run).

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