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Downgraded Q3 GDP Implies Economy Close to Stalling

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN FINAL Q3 GDP +0.1% Q/Q (FLASH +0.2%), Q2 +2.0%r Q/Q

SPAIN FINAL Q3 GDP +4.4% Y/Y (FLASH +3.8%), Q2 +7.6%r Y/Y

  • The Spanish economy came closer to stalling at +0.1% q/q in today's final Q3 2022 GDP data, a 0.1pp downgrade from the flash estimates.
  • Year-on-year Q3 growth was +4.4%, slowing from +7.6% y/y in Q2.
  • The Spanish Statistical Institute expressed that the previous print relied on a largely modelled estimate of September, which has proven to have been weaker than estimates. Substantial upwards revisions were made to Q2 data.
  • Household final consumption expenditure was a meagre +0.1% q/q, as high inflation and recessionary outlooks sees spending soften into year-end.
  • Contractions were recorded across gross fixed capital formation, industry (-0.1% q/q), information and communications (-0.3%), finance (-1.8% q/q), real estate (-3.0%), and the public/education/health sector (-0.2% q/q).
  • All in all, a weak report implying that the Spanish economy is suffering sector-based recessions emerging across the greater economy.
  • With outlooks to see no improvement in Q4, this quarter could be the onset of recession.

Source: INE

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