Downing St. Power Struggle Has Implications Beyond No.10's Front Door

The ongoing power struggle between senior figures within 10 Downing Street may come as an unnecessary distraction to the public, given the ongoing pandemic and potential for the EU and UK to fail to come to terms on an FTA, but it could have significant policy impacts in the months and years ahead.

• Started with the resignation late last night of No.10 Comms director Lee Cain after his path to becoming PM Boris Johnson's chief of staff was blocked by a group of advisors, ministers and individuals - supposedly led by Johnson's fiancee former Conservative HQ Comms director Carrie Symonds - opposed to the former Vote Leave official's style of working.
• One of Cain's closest allies in No,10, the PM's senior adviser Dominic Cummings, said to be displeased with Cain's exit. Doesn't want to be marginalised by a group including new No.10 spokeswoman Allegra Stratton and policy unit chief Munira Mirza, who are seen as less forthright in support for a hard Brexit.
• Politico's Alex Wickham tweets: "Concerted briefing operation underway from the remaining senior Vote Leave team in No10 against spads like Munira Mirza and Henry Newman. Told they're spreading false rumours that one of them is to be appointed Chief of Staff in an attempt to destabilise their internal rivals"
• And the FT's Seb Payne: "... Dominic Cummings is still pushing for one of his close allies to be Downing Street chief of staff after Boris Johnson refused to give the job to Lee Cain. Allies of Cummings suggesting No10 aide Cleo Watson is in the running, others think it's unlikely."
• Should the pro-Cummings group secure it's preferred individual as PM's CoS, it would likely see No.10 maintain its track record in policy-making terms of supporting a hard Brexit and governing in a populist style. An appointment from the 'Symonds-Mirza' wing could see a more liberal stance from No.10, with some hoping of a return to the Johnson governing style of when he ran London from 2008-2016. Given Johnson's campaign in the 2019GE and reliance on support from MPs in socially conservative seats in Northern England, this latter 'hope' seems to us an unlikely prospect.