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Downside Risks Pervade in EUR/USD, Despite Recovery into NY Hours

EUR
  • EUR/USD improves to re-test the overnight high at 1.0890, but clearance here would still leave the pair short of yesterday's best levels (1.0907) as well as the 50-dma resistance of 1.0918. Volumes are faring just below recent averages, with EUR futures ~20% below average for this time of day.
  • As a result, the pair remains closer to recent lows, but did find support earlier this week at 1.0846 - a level that will be watched on any return lower.
  • Today's Michigan data will be carefully eyed for any shift in inflation expectations, (1y is exp. Unchanged at 3.1%, although gas prices fell further over the first half of January) and any upside surprises could press the USD Index back toward YTD highs.
  • Options interest into today's NY cut is tilted lower, with the most sizeable strike at 1.0800 ($2.5bln set to roll off) before a more balanced pipeline over the first half of next week.

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