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Drifting Cheaper With Fedspeak Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a calmer overnight with front end yields drifting higher with Fed rate expectations and the longer end paring an earlier rise for also limited moves on the day. It sees marginal underperformance to core EU FI (weak German factory orders, EZ retail sales after revisions) but notable outperformance of Gilts on further fiscal plan fears.
  • Yields sit towards the high end of yesterday’s range through 2-10Y tenors, having increasingly clawed back the early week rally on at the longer end. · 2YY +2.3bps at 4.171%, 5YY +2.4bps at 3.991%, 10YY +2bps at 3.773%, and 30YY +0.7bps at 3.761%.
  • TYZ2 trades 4+ ticks lower at 112-12+, near both session and yesterday’s lows of 112-09/112-08+ but not troubling support at 111-20+ (Sep 21 low). Below average volumes continue from yesterday.
  • Fedspeak: Governors: Cook (text + Q&A), Waller (text + Q&A, late). '22 voter: Mester x2. ’23 voters: Kashkari x2, Evans.
  • Data: Light calendar ahead of payrolls tomorrow. Challenger jobs cuts for Sep and weekly initial jobless claims for Oct 1.
  • Bill issuance: $50B 4-W bills, $45B 8-W bills
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