Due in 5 mins: November activity data

UK GDP: is seen higher on the month in the November print, reaching 0.4% growth following nearly stalling in October at 0.1% growth. The latest reading saw production, mining and manufacturing contract, whilst services expanded on the back of the health sector. UK monthly GDP has roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels and a marked rebound in the auto industry suggests an upside risk to this month’s forecast.

Industrial Production: UK industrial production is expected to slow further in November, declining for the seventh consecutive month to 0.5% y/y, down from 1.4% y/y. On the month, a slight recovery is forecasted at 0.2% m/m, following a contraction of 0.6% m/m on October.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing is also projected to continue declining from the April high, with analysts looking for a contraction to -0.3% y/y in November, from 1.3% y/y in October. A small recovery to 0.2% m/m is however expected.

UK Trade Balance: The UK trade deficit is seen expanding by shy of GBP500m to -GBP2500m in November, running a deficit for the sixth consecutive month. High fuel prices, Brexit-induced EU trade reductions, supply chain disruptions have made UK trade data particularly volatile over the past two years.

Market reaction: This is largely before the Omicron variant was dominant in the UK so the data is unlikely to be hugely market moving. If we get disappointing print, it probably won't be enough to derail any concerns about inflation the MPC may have going into the February meeting. If we get a strong print, it's also unlikely to tip the balance. So should be muted reaction.