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Durable Goods Bounce On Aircraft Volatility, Core Orders Beat More Modest

US DATA
  • Durable goods orders surprisingly surged 5.4% M/M (cons 2.3) in November preliminary data as they bounced from a slightly upward revised -5.1% M/M (initial -5.4%) in Oct.
  • However, as it often the way, there was further substantial noise from nondefense aircraft and parts orders, which increased 80% M/M in Nov, -44% in Oct and 91% in Sep.
  • Core orders nevertheless still beat expectations, rising 0.8% M/M (cons 0.1) but with some of that gloss taken off by a downward revised -0.6% M/M in Oct (initial -0.3).
  • Further, core shipments saw a small miss and downward revision, falling -0.1% M/M for the third month running.
  • Core orders and shipments are both running at just 0.7% annualized on a 3M/3M nominal basis.

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