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PHILIPPINES

The deadline for replacing candidates in the Philippines' 2022 elections expired on Monday. Last-minute reshuffle leaves President Duterte running for the Senate, his daughter seeking vice-presidency and the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos as a favourite to become the next President.

  • Incumbent President Duterte filed his Certificate of Candidacy (COC) just minutes before the deadline and will replace Mona Liza Visorde in a race for a senatorial seat. A constitutional limit prohibits Duterte from seeking another term in office. His decision not to run for Vice President allows him to avoid a direct face-off with his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio.
  • Duterte-Carpio, the sitting Mayor of Davao City, abandoned a bid to succeed her father despite consistently outperforming in opinion polls. Rodrigo Duterte noted that he was "puzzled" by his daughter's decision, which may have been made in coordination with presidential candidate Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos.
  • There is consensus among analysts that Duterte-Carpio's decision not to run for President renders Marcos a clear frontrunner and his party Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP) have already backed her candidacy for Vice President. Marcos' main rivals include Rodrigo Duterte's long-time aide Christopher "Bong" Go as well as former boxer Manny Pacquiao, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno and current Vice President Leni Robredo.
  • Rodrigo Duterte will be a candidate of the Pederalismo ng Dugong Dakilang Samahan (PDDS) party. Bong Go also switched to representing PDDS and many expect that he may attract some pro-Duterte voters who might otherwise vote for Marcos. He was originally a candidate of the ruling PDP-Laban, who nonetheless continue to back his presidential bid. PDP-Laban's vice-presidential candidate Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa withdrew his bid.
Fig. 1: Who Will Be Elected President Of The Philippines In 2022?

PredictIt

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 | krzysztof.kruk@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 | krzysztof.kruk@marketnews.com

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