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Early Cheapening Unwound, Split Congress Odds Increase

US TSYS

Cash Tsys run little changed across the curve, with the odds of a split Congress increasing as results and projections from the Midterms continue to filter out.

  • TYZ2 unwound early weakness to trade at essentially unchanged levels, a touch off session highs registered over the last couple of hours.
  • The Republican Party is still expected to take the House from the Democrats. However, the Senate situation is more complex, with Democrats outperforming in the crucial Pennsylvania Senate race. If the Democrats win in PA, then the GOP will need to win two of Georgia (currently on a knife edge), Nevada or Arizona.
  • There has been little in the way of headline flow outside of the midterm matters.
  • Cross-asset flows are struggling to provide meaningful direction, with the broader DXY essentially unchanged and the 3 major e-mini futures dealing either side of unchanged.
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