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Early Core PCE Estimates See Modest M/M Acceleration In June

US DATA

Initial analyst estimates for June core PCE currently average at 0.14% M/M after a particularly soft 0.08% M/M in May. Due inevitable revisions after tomorrow’s PPI report, this currently marks a second month below the inflation target and would see the three-month run rate slow to just 2.0% annualized.

  • Scotiabank: 0.0% or -0.1%
  • Wells Fargo: 0.1% (rounded)
  • Jefferies: 0.10%
  • Nomura: 0.136% (vs 0.17 pre-CPI)
  • TD: 0.18%
  • JPM: 0.19%
  • HSBC: 0.20
  • GS: 0.20
  • BofA: 0.21% (with 0.3% for core services non-housing)

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