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Early Dovish Move Sticks In BoE Pricing, Unwilling To Show Over 110bp Of Cuts For Now

STIR

BoE-dated OIS sits roughly in line with levels we flagged late in the London morning, with the geopolitical tensions outlined elsewhere, a couple of rounds of dovish ECB speak and softer UK Citi/YouGov inflation expectations metrics helping bias the UK STIR space in a dovish direction as BoE week gets underway.

  • Very shallow forays beyond 110bp of total '24 cuts have been seen today but those moves have been very slight and not stuck. A reminder that the recent range in that market is ~90bp of cuts to a little over 150bp of cuts.
  • We will be publishing out full BoE decision preview tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.200+1.2
Mar-245.170-1.8
May-245.063-12.5
Jun-244.898-29.0
Aug-244.680-50.8
Sep-244.490-69.8
Nov-244.267-92.1
Dec-244.109-107.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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