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Early Gains Lost In Post-CPI Dealings, Poor JGB 10Y Auction

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.0) sit little changed having given up early gains. After a slight overnight gain, ACGB futures rallied into the release of November’s CPI Monthly. While the CPI print slightly beat market expectations, the ex-volatile items measure showed a smaller reduction compared to October. The annual rise in November was 4.8% versus 5.1% in October.

  • Another poor 10-year JGB auction result also likely weighed on global bonds in afternoon dealings of today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash US tsys are dealing flat to 1bp lower, with a steepening bias, so far today. In large part, the recent performance of US tsys is best seen as a holding pattern ahead of US CPI/PPI data on Thursday/Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential flat at +9bps.
  • Swap rates are unchanged.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with price movement bounded by +/- 1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings having given up an early softening. A cumulative easing of 48bps is priced by year-end. It was -53bps earlier in the session.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data for November.
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