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Early losses already reversed

SONIA
  • SONIA futures opened lower this morning, following the higher-than-expected retail sales print (ignoring the lower than expected GfK consumer confidence reading overnight) with the Dec24 contract hitting a low of 94.70 and Dec23 a lot of 94.075.
  • However, these moves have quickly been reversed and the curve is now up to 5 ticks off the low and generally 1-2 ticks above yesterday's close at writing.
  • Markets continue to price just under a 50% probability of a 50bp hike in August (36bp) whicle the terminal rate is now at 5.92% by February 2024.

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