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Early outperformers

GILTS
  • Gilts are the outperformers today, reversing some of yesterday's ECB-driven rally (and also continuing to digest the implications of the energy price announcement.
  • 10-year yields are now little changed on the day today (but at one point were 3bp lower on the day), although this is still an 11.5bp increase relative to Wednesday's close, and we have made a new intraday high in yields of 3.16%, the highest level since July 2011.
  • Following the passing of Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, parliament will be suspended for ten days for a period of mourning. This may potentially push back the timing of the Fiscal Statement (which had yet to have a confirmed date other than in September anyway).
  • Focus is turning to next week's MPC meeting where markets are split between pricing for a 50bp or 75bp hike, but a number of sellside institutions have released or are releasing their BOE previews around now, so that could alter market sentiment somewhat.
  • 2y yields unch today at 3.049%, 5y yields up 0.7bp at 3.005%, 10y yields up 1.7bp at 3.161% and 30y yields up 3.8bp at 3.532%.
  • 2s10s up 1.7bp today at 11.2bp and 10s30s up 2.1bp at 37.1bp.
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