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Early Risk-On To Finish Week

US TSYS
Markets trade with a modest risk-on tone ahead the weekend. Off early London highs, Tsys now mildly weaker (30YY 3.2124% +.0128) on moderate volumes (TYU2 <325k) as stocks inch higher (ESU2 +30.75 at 3830.50). Crude firmer (WTI +1.85 at 106.12), as is Gold (+4.83 at 1827.60) after Thu's rout.
  • Tsy 30Y bond futures USU2 near recent lows, taking cues from lower EGBs and China rates (10YY slightly over 200DMA, 2.8360%).
  • Tsy yield curves narrowly mixed (2s10s +.637 at 7.037) as short end continues to adjust to Thu's rate hike re-pricing post weak PMI: Fed baseline still 75bp in near term amid ongoing recession concerns, but mkt pricing of hikes stalls out in early 2023.
  • Limited data today w/ U. of Mich. Sentiment (50.2 est) and New Home Sales (590 est)/MoM (-0.2%) at 1000ET.
  • Fed speak kicks off w/ StL Fed Bullard on inflation, UBS event, Zurich, no text, Q&A at 0730ET. SF Fed Daly Fox Business interview at 1315ET.
  • US Banks passed 2022 Fed Stress Tests -- under a stress scenario tougher than that of last year's, the 34 banks would collectively lose USD612 billion, the Fed said in late Thu release.
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