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Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Rate Cut Positioning Continues

US TSYS
Carry-over interest in upside SOFR and Treasury call options overnight, underlying futures firmer on weaker stocks and dip in Swiss CPI inflation data. More upside/rate-cut call structure targeting the September 18 FOMC rate announcement. Late year rate cut projections continue to gain vs. late Monday levels (*): June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -16% w/ cumulative at -4.3bp at 5.288%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.2bp (-17.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -26.1bp (-25.3bp), Dec'24 -42.7bp (-40.6bp).
  • SOFR Options:
    • 10,000 SFRU4 94.93/95.06/95.18 call flys ref 94.86
    • 6,500 SFRZ4 94.75 puts, 5 ref 95.105
    • Block, 5,000 SFRH5 94.62/95.12 2x1 put spds, 9 vs. 95.30/0.05%
    • 12,000 SFRM4 95.62/96.00/96.37 call trees ref 95.56 to -.57
    • 1,500 SFRU4 94.81/94.87 put spds ref 94.86
    • 2,000 SFRZ4 96.50/97.00/97.12 broken call flys, ref 95.095
    • 2,000 SFRM4 94.18/94.75 put spds ref 94.665
    • 1,500 0QU4 96.00/96.37/96.62 call flys, ref 95.76
  • Treasury Options:
    • 4,200 TYQ4 110.5/112.5 1x2 call spds, 15 ref 109-21.5
    • 3,000 TYQ4 108.5/111.5 strangles, ref 109-21
    • 18,500 TYN4 111/111.5 call spds, 5 ref 109-22
    • 7,000 wk1 FV 106.75/107 call spds, ref 106-11.25 expire Friday
    • 3,800 TYU4 108 puts, 39
    • 2,000 TYN4 110/110.75 1x2 call spds, 0.0 ref 109-20
    • Block, 5,000 TYN4 108.75/110.25 risk reversals, 0.0 call over ref 109-16

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