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Early USD Support Fades, Putting Greenback Weaker into NY Crossover

FOREX
  • Currency markets are relatively steady heading into the US crossover, with the greenback edging lower in recent trade as the relentless rise in US yields abates off the cycle high. The US sovereign curve has traded higher and steeper again in Europe, putting the 30y yield briefly at 5% and tipping the 10y yield to a fresh cycle best.
  • The greenback initially saw support, tipping the likes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD to new pullback lows of 1.0451 and 1.2037 respectively. This impact faded following the cash equity open on the continent, helping both pairs spill back into positive territory.
  • Resultingly, the greenback is among the poorer performers in G10, with NZD similarly weak. EUR, GBP and AUD are faring better, running in contrast to their poor performance earlier this week.
  • Markets are no clearer on whether the Japanese authorities formally intervened in currency markets yesterday after the sharp pullback after prices showed above Y150.00. The Japanese finance minister, top currency official and a government spokesman declined to comment, leaving traders waiting until the end of the month for any official confirmation from the BoJ.
  • The US labour market takes focus going forward, with the September ADP employment change and ISM services data set for release. Markets expect ADP gains to slow to 150k from 177k, while ISM services is also seen lower this month. Markets remain on watch for any further clues on the labour market ahead of Friday's NFP release, at which consensus looks for job gains of 170k.
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