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EBRD Upgrade Russia GDP Forecast on Higher Oil Price Expectations

RUSSIA
  • The EBRD forecast that Russia’s economy will shrink 1.5%, compared with a previous estimate of a 3.0% contraction. The upgrade was driven by higher oil price expectations as Western sanctions force Russia to sell elsewhere.
  • Bloomberg report that the exports of most Russian fertilizers are climbing back to pre-war levels just as President Putin’s negotiators make removing obstacles to the trade a key priority in talks to extend the Black Sea grain deal this week. After total shipments abroad plunged roughly 15% last year, most fertilizers are flowing abroad at close to the level before Russia invaded Ukraine, according to representatives from some of the country’s biggest exporters.
  • Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, First Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin and Deputy Finance Minister Aleksey Moiseev are expected to take part in a conference on the Russian stock market, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak begins his visit to Iran.
  • There are no data releases scheduled today with GDP data the focus tomorrow afternoon (Est: -2.1% y/y; Prior: -2.7%).
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