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ECB and US CPI in Focus

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD recovery off Friday's low of $1.2104 extended to $1.2218 in early NY Wednesday ($1.2219 76.4% $1.2254-1.2104) before momentum faded, dropping back to $1.2174 through the 1600BST fix, closing the day at $1.2180.
  • EUR/JPY sales cited for providing the mild downside pressure seen in Asia as EUR/USD was eased to $1.2163 ahead of Europe.
  • Position adjustments continue, though within narrow ranges, ahead of today's US CPI 1230GMT(median 0.4%mm, 4.7%yy; Core 0.5%mm, 3.5%) and ECB monetary policy announcement 1145GMT/ ECB Lagarde presser 1230GMT.
  • Component parts of the US CPI in focus, Core release seen more interesting.
  • US Jobless Claims 1230GMT also of note
  • ECB expected to be dovish (no change in pace of of asset purchases through Q3) . Current EUR strength may be an influence.
  • Support seen into $1.2160, break to expose $1.2148/31 (61.8%-76.4% $1.2104-1.2218), a move through here would dent the recent buoyant feel and open a deeper move toward $1.2100. Resistance $1.2218/19, break of $1.2220 exposes $1.2227 ahead of $1.2254/66.
  • Option expiries of note for today's NY cut include $1.2140(E597mln-EUR puts), $1.2175-90(E2.2bln), $1.2200-10(E950mln-EUR puts).
  • MNI Techs: Pair remains vulnerable following a sharp pullback Jun 3 that saw price trade through initial support at 1.2133, May 28 low. This highlights potential for a deeper correction and attention remains on the 50-day EMA at 1.2108. The EMA represents a key area of support ahead of 1.2104, the Jun 4 low. On the upside, primary resistance is unchanged at 1.2266, May 25 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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