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ECB, BoE Hike Pricing Holds Firm As PMIs Beat

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ECB and BoE hike pricing held firm Wednesday as November European PMIs beat expectations and pointed to a recession that may be slightly milder than feared.

  • ECB Dec hike pricing edged a little closer to 75bp, set to close around the 60bp level for the first session since Nov 15 (and up from 55bp at Monday's open). Terminal ECB pricing has been relatively steady by comparison, seen at 2.92% in Jul 2023.
  • BoE Dec pricing is 57.9bp, flat on the session, though this has steadily declined from >60bp since the immediate aftermath of the Nov MPC. The peak is seen in Sept 2023 at 4.595%, a 4bp uptick from the prior close but within recent ranges.

Dec2022 BoE Hike Pricing %Source: BBG, MNI


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ECB and BoE hike pricing held firm Wednesday as November European PMIs beat expectations and pointed to a recession that may be slightly milder than feared.

  • ECB Dec hike pricing edged a little closer to 75bp, set to close around the 60bp level for the first session since Nov 15 (and up from 55bp at Monday's open). Terminal ECB pricing has been relatively steady by comparison, seen at 2.92% in Jul 2023.
  • BoE Dec pricing is 57.9bp, flat on the session, though this has steadily declined from >60bp since the immediate aftermath of the Nov MPC. The peak is seen in Sept 2023 at 4.595%, a 4bp uptick from the prior close but within recent ranges.

Dec2022 BoE Hike Pricing %Source: BBG, MNI