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ECB / BoE Pricing Largely Looks Through Disinflationary Data

STIR

Europe central bank hike pricing largely looked through disinflationary-leaning data Thursday to end basically flat.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing +1.4bp to 3.74% (49bp of further hikes left in the cycle). Hike pricing ticked slightly higher after dipping earlier this week on soft national CPI prints (the Euro area flash May print decelerated mostly in line with analysts' expectations). June hike pricing sits at 23bp.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -0.1bp to 5.42% (92bp of further hikes left in the cycle). Peak hike pricing dipped as much as 4bp intraday, with soft US labour cost data providing the impetus in the afternoon, but the move reversed alongside general risk-on moves by the cash close. June hike pricing closed a little softer though, now showing 27bp (92% prob of a 25bp vs 50bp hike), off 1bp.

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