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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB and BoE rate cut pricing picked back up again Tuesday, with last week's (largely PMI-related) pullback fading further. Today's key dovish catalyst was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments that there could be scope for US rate cuts in the coming months contingent on lower inflation.
- 97bp of cuts are now priced for the ECB between Dec 2023 and Dec 2024 - up 7bp on the day to the most since Nov 16. A first full 25bp cut is robustly priced for June 2024, with around 80% probability of a first reduction by April 2024. 84bp of cuts are seen by the October meeting.
- 90bp of BoE cuts are priced between Feb/Mar 2024 peak (just 3-4bp higher from current levels) and a year later - up 5bp on the day to the most implied cuts since Nov 21. A first full 25bp cut is still cumulatively seen by August 2024, with the first 50bp of cuts by the Nov meeting.
- Attention turns to Eurozone November inflation readings which commence first thing Wednesday morning with German state (NRW) data, with the Spanish and German national figures to come later. MNI's preview is here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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