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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB and BoE hike pricing ticked lower Friday, with implied terminal levels respectively down 4bp and 36bp for the week after dropping 4 days out of 5 (see chart).
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -2.9bp to 5.91% (91bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). BoE hike pricing couldn't reclaim the 6.00% level after crashing below it on Wednesday's soft UK CPI data, but is up 5bp from that day's closing lows. The 3bp pullback today comes despite stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Even so, pricing for the August MPC ticked 1bp higher, now implying just under 50% prob of a 50bp vs a 25bp hike.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -1.4bp to 3.97% (47bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). A hike next Thursday is a near-certainty, priced with roughly 95% implied probability. But the meeting communications will be eyed for any guidance for the September meeting, through which a cumulative 40bp of tightening is priced.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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