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ECB Comes Into Focus

BOND SUMMARY

Government bonds are broadly bid this morning alongside renewed selling in equities ahead of today's GC meeting.

  • The UST curve has bull flattened with the 2s30s spread 2bp narrower. TYZ1 trades at 133-10 and holds within a relatively narrow intraday range (L: 133-06+ / H: 133-12+).
  • The gilt curve has flattened on the back of the short-end selling off and long-end yields pushing lower. The 2s30s spread is now down 4bp on the day.
  • Bunds have firmed with cash yields 1bp below yesterday's close.
  • BTPs have slightly outperformed core EGBs.
  • Focus today will be on the ECB meeting where the GC is widely expected to reduce the PEPP purchase pace alongside an upgrade to staff macroeconomic projections for growth and inflation.
  • The European data slate has been light with the only release of note being German trade data for July, which showed an improvement in the trade surplus since June.
  • European supply has come from Italy (BOTs, EUR7b) and Ireland (IGB, EUR1.25bn).
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