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ECB Cut Pricing Deepens Following Schnabel Comments

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts price deeper ECB cuts as markets digest pre-cash open comments from ECB's Schnabel.

  • Schnabel noted that “the most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely”, which reads dovishly given her typically hawkish leanings. For more, see MNI Fixed Income Bullets @06:49 AM GMT.
  • This sees the strip price in almost 23bps of rate cuts for the March 2024 ECB meeting, up from around 10bps of cuts priced last Tuesday.
  • The first 25bp cut continues to be more than fully priced for the April 2024 meeting (45bps of cuts priced), while 144bps of cuts are priced by the December 2024 meeting.
  • Accordingly, the Euribor strip sits +1.0 to +9.0 ticks firmer vs yesterday's settlement levels, with Whites leaning.
  • Services PMIs (mostly final prints, other than Italy and Spain) and ECB inflation expectations headline the European docket today, with no scheduled ECB speakers at present.
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BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

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