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ECB Cut Pricing Pulls Back Slightly Following US CPI

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts have pulled back rate cut pricing a touch following the US CPI release, with 134bps of rate cuts priced by the December 2024 meeting (vs 138bps earlier today). Near-term cut pricing shows less of a move, with 34bps priced by the April 2024 meeting (vs 35bps earlier).

  • A firmer than expected supercore M/M reading in the US inflation data has pressured global core FI markets and tempered rate cut expectations.
  • Accordingly, the Euribor strip sits off session bests, with Whites broadly flat and Blues 4.5 to 6.0 ticks higher.
  • Tomorrow's docket is once again light, with the Fed decision after hours the main focus before the ECB decision on Thursday.
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