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ECB Cut Pricing Steady Following Wednesday Speakers

STIR

ECB-dated OIS cut pricing for 2024 has been pared back slightly following this morning's ECB-speak, but still indicates just over 90bps of cuts priced by the December 2024 meeting vs the current ESTR effective rate.

  • Comments from Governing Board members this morning did not add much new to the policy debate, but more influential speakers (e.g. Nagel) continued to push back on cut expectations and reiterated vigilance on inflation. As previously noted, Lane's comments r.e. not taking comfort from inflation at 2.9% are of some note given his dovish leanings.
  • The strip shows around 1bps fewer cuts priced through the April - October 2024-dated contracts vs this morning before comments began hitting wires.

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