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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
ECB-dated ESTR OIS contracts show a slightly higher probability of 2024 cuts compared to the prior day, following confirmation that the Eurozone flash October inflation came in softer than consensus.
- The headline, at 2.91% was the lowest reading since July 2021 while core at 4.19% was the softest since July 2022. Meanwhile, Q3 GDP fell -0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.0% expected) and rose 0.1% Y/Y (vs 0.2% expected).
- Comments from the ECB's Visco (re defending the ECB's current restrictive policy) did not move the needle, likely because today is the Bank of Italy head's last day in office before handing the baton to Fabio Panetta.
- There is currently just over 1bp of tightening priced in for the December, before cuts begin to be priced through 2024 - over 70bps are priced by the October 2024 meeting (and over 80bps by the end of 2024)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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