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ECB Hike Pricing Steady, BoE Heading Lower

STIR
A pretty minimal impact from that soft US PPI print on ECB hike pricing, with terminal in Sep basically unchanged (still 4bp lower on the day at 3.70%, ie 70bp of hikes for the rest of the cycle), and 28bp still priced for May.
  • BoE Bank Rate peak has fallen off a little more though, at 4.71% (71bp of hikes remaining), down 3bp since the PPI reading (and 3.5bp on the day). Still 80% prob of a 25bp hike at the May meeting.
  • MNI event with BoE's Pill just getting underway, now seeing some dovish follow through from his prepared remarks.

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