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ECB Leads Rate Pullback As Equities Retreat

STIR

Terminal central bank rate expectations continue to pull back as equities retrench (led by cyclicals/financials).

  • While the Huw Pill comments earlier have put the focus on potential BoE dovishness (perhaps unjustifiably given his comments on inflation came before last week's CPI print), it's actually ECB rates that have pulled back the most today.
  • The latter jumped late Mon following ECB Schnabel's comments on a 50bp hike being on the table for the May meeting, but that move was erased on today's open and the pullback has continued through the session.

This would be the biggest ECB peak rate pullback since Mar 23rd:

  • ECB terminal Depo rate pricing -10.1bp to 3.81%
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -7bp to 4.91
  • Fed terminal Funds rate (upper limit) pricing -2.5bp to 5.25%

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