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ECB May Hike Pricing Almost Fully Back To 25bp, 50bp Left In Cycle


ECB hike pricing has extended a few bps higher since Bloomberg's piece out an hour ago citing sources saying Exec Board's Schnabel pushed for more explicit wording in the March statement on signalling further rate hikes.

  • A 25bp hike at the May ECB meeting is now 88% priced (vs a pause), up nearly 25% on the day and just short of the low-90% range seen Thursday before the large drop Friday (to as low as 60% probability).
  • The Schnabel story briefly helped nudge pricing just over 50bp in total cumulative hikes to the September peak; at the low Friday, as little as 20bp had been priced (ie no full hikes remaining in the cycle).
  • Recall we're set to hear from Schnabel later today at a Columbia University event (1600BST). Not too surprising to see she sits at the hawkish end of the spectrum, however.

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