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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ECB
The ECB’s September macroeconomic projections are not expected to see major deviations from June. The median of analyst expectations compiled by MNI see a 10bps upgrade to 2024 core HICP (to 2.9%), and 10bps downgrades to 2024 and 2025 GDP (to 0.8% and 1.3% respectively).
- The weak growth outlook has come more into focus since the beginning of the summer, and commentary surrounding downside growth risks will be closely watched.
- In this light, we note that 5 of the 12 analysts whose forecasts we have compiled have an expectation (or see a chance) of 2024 growth seeing a 20bps downward revision to 0.7%.
- On core inflation, a handful of analysts expect the 2024 core inflation projection to be revised 20bps higher to 3.0%, while 4 see a chance of the forecast remaining at 2.8%.
- The full suite of forecasts (at a quarterly frequency and including other macroeconomic variables of interest such as productivity and unit labour costs) will be released at 1445BST/1545CET (around the end of President Lagarde’s press conference).
- A reminder that the September projections will be put together by ECB staff, whereas the June set were completed by Eurosystem (i.e. national central bank) staff.
- Our full ECB preview is here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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