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ECB Pricing Little Changed, Need For Persistence Stressed

STIR

ECB-dated OIS generally sits within 1bp of yesterday’s closing levels, with continued Governing Council & Executive Board focus on the need to maintain rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as is required as the fight against inflation is still ongoing.

  • ECB’s Lane reiterated this idea, while identifying food prices, services inflation and wage growth as key areas of risk.
  • Terminal policy rate pricing is ~4.5bp above prevailing levels, with the first 25bp cut from prevailing levels essentially fully priced come July ’24.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Oct-233.915+1.6
Dec-233.943+4.4
Jan-243.939+4.0
Mar-243.898-0.2
Apr-243.836-6.3
Jun-243.748-15.1
Jul-243.652-24.7
Sep-243.539-36.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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